Will 2014-2015 be an El Nino Year? For some time now the El Nino 2014 weather pattern has been an increasingly popular topic. Through the first six months of 2014, the patterns suggested we were in for an epic El Nino which would rival 2005 and even 1998.
The very latest data issued by the US Climate Prediction Center states that “5 of 8 international models signal El Nino will probably develop by the end of spring, with about half indicating the event will be established by September, the bureau said. The odds of an El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere summer are about 70 percent”, stated on approximately July 7, 2014.
We roofers are, of course, interested in weather patterns and we noticed that over the last 13 years, annual rainfall totals have never gone down three years in a row. It has been down for the last two years. Furthermore after any down year, they usually come back up relatively sharply – at least into normal ranges of 15 or 16 inches and in some cases 18, 20 and 30 inches.
We cannot draw anything definite from these two facts, but given the fact that we’ve had two of the driest rainfall seasons on record over the last couple of years, we can speculate that this winter is going to shape up for a lot of leaking roofs, and not just because it may (or may not) rain a lot.
It does not take a lot of rain to produce leaks for the very simple reason that it hasn’t really rained hard enough in the last few years for most people to really know if they have a leak. Anyone who has had a “leak condition” over the last three years will have only made that condition worse by not repairing it, by simply letting the sun degrade the condition more and more. Many roof leaks do not present themselves or are not visible unless we get a rainfall cycle of at least several days.
Why does this matter right now?
We believe that this year if we have even a below-normal rainfall year (10-12 inches) that the roofing industry will be very busy. If we have a normal year, 16 inches or so, it could be much like it was back in 2005 where roofing companies were typically booked out anywhere from 3 to 9 months leaving many Southern Californians in the lurch with leaking roofs and no options.
With all this in mind we would advise property owners, in particular commercial property owners and property managers to get their roofs checked out and fixed or re-roofed this summer and fall before this winter arrives or you may find yourself left out in a cold.
The next few months may just be the cheapest and best time to get any roof work done in the coming years.
What is the solution?
ROOF CHECK-UP
Our $155.00 roof check-up service includes checking all roof seals, perimeters, existing roof condition, and penetrations such as AC ducts, skylights and chimneys. We also handle simple roof maintenance problems. If your roof has problems beyond the scope of our $155.00 roof check-up, such as needing replacement or extensive damage, you are charged nothing and get a free estimate instead with no obligation. Call or email us today to schedule.